Serie A 2023-24 Season Predictions

Before the 2023-24 Serie A season kicked off in August, anticipation was high, and thus far it’s nothing more than exciting.

With 12 games already played, here’s a detailed breakdown of the revised percentage likelihoods for teams vying for the title, European spots, and those battling against relegation.

Title Contenders: Who Will Win Serie A in 2023-24?

Inter's dominance has been evident, winning 10 out of 12 matches. Their sole losses came at home against Sassuolo and in an away draw against Bologna. Notably, their emphatic 5-1 victory over Milan in September underscored their strength, setting the tone for a commanding run under Simone Inzaghi's management.

Juventus, initially seeming unsettled due to last season's point deduction and absence from European competitions, have found their rhythm. Despite a solitary league defeat to Sassuolo and a couple of draws, they've rallied with five consecutive wins, keeping pace with Inter at the top.

The upcoming clash between Juventus and Inter at the Allianz Stadium looms large, potentially a pivotal showdown in determining the title. However, heading into this clash, Inter remains the heavy favorite to secure the Scudetto by the season’s end. The supercomputer's initial prediction favored Inter at 43.8%, now nearly doubling to 84.8%. Meanwhile, Juventus has seen an increase in its probability from 4.2% to 11.6% since the season's outset.

Beyond the Top Contenders:
Milan, currently trailing by eight points, holds a mere 2.2% chance, while Napoli, despite their past title success, only managed a 1.2% likelihood in the 10,000 simulations. Napoli, facing a 10-point gap from the top, aims to regain momentum under their former boss Walter Mazzarri's return.

Additionally, the supercomputer acknowledges a slight possibility for a few other teams, with Atalanta leading the pack at 0.06%, followed by Lazio (0.05%), Bologna (0.02%), and Roma (0.01%).

European Qualification:
Inter and Juventus are nearly certain for a top-four finish according to the supercomputer, with Milan and Napoli striving to secure UEFA Champions League spots. Despite recent winless streaks, Milan maintains a 76.3% chance, while Napoli faces a tough challenge in maintaining or improving its 67.3% probability under Mazzarri's leadership.

Atalanta eyes Champions League qualification with a 65.0% overall chance, while Lazio, despite a rocky start, still stands at 13.8% for a top-four finish and 48.4% for a European berth. Roma's resurgence places them at 5.0% and 25% for the top four and European spots, respectively.

Relegation Candidates:
The prospects look grim for Salernitana, predicted by the supercomputer with an 88.1% chance of relegation. Cagliari and Hellas Verona follow closely, with respective probabilities of 62.5% and 55.1%.

Empoli (28.8%) and newly-promoted Genoa (16.8%) also face potential relegation threats, while Udinese (13.3%) and Frosinone (12.8%) are considered next in line for the drop.

Statistical Insights:
An analysis of expected points reveals interesting discrepancies. Inter and Juventus have overperformed against their expected points, while Milan seems to have exceeded expectations as well. Teams like Fiorentina have garnered more points than anticipated, while those at the bottom, including Salernitana and Verona, are underperforming against their expected points.

The projections are the season's end with Inter leading, followed by Juventus, Milan, and Napoli. The table maintains surprises, with teams like Lecce and Sassuolo underperforming, while Empoli and Genoa face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.

Related Article: What is the Scudetto? Meaning, Rich History, and Legendary Winners