What happens if Iran withdraw from the 2026 World Cup, could UAE or Iraq replace them?
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised questions about whether Iran national football team will participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Iran qualified for the expanded 48-team tournament through Asian qualifying, but the ongoing regional conflict has prompted speculation about what could happen if the team withdraws or is prevented from traveling to North America.
While no decision has been made, FIFA has acknowledged it is monitoring developments closely. Here is how the situation could unfold, and why teams like the United Arab Emirates national football team or Iraq national football team might benefit.
Why Iran’s World Cup participation is in question
Iran secured qualification after topping their Asian qualifying group, booking a place at the 2026 tournament hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.
However, growing conflict in the region and potential travel restrictions have led to uncertainty about whether the team will ultimately participate.
Iran were drawn in Group G alongside:
- Belgium national football team
- New Zealand national football team
- Egypt national football team
Matches are scheduled to take place in Los Angeles and Seattle. Despite speculation, FIFA officials have emphasized that it is still too early to determine whether any changes will be necessary.
- Related Article: 2026 World Cup Draw Reveals All 12 Groups
What FIFA Rules say about a withdrawal
Under the official regulations for the 2026 tournament, a team that withdraws from the competition faces significant penalties. If a qualified team pulls out, FIFA may:
- Issue fines of up to CHF 500,000
- Require the federation to repay tournament preparation funding
- Impose additional disciplinary sanctions
- Replace the team with another member association
The rules do allow FIFA to insert a replacement team, but they do not specify exactly how that team must be chosen. This means the governing body has discretion in deciding the most appropriate replacement.
Would another Asian team replace Iran?
Historically, when a team withdraws from a major tournament, FIFA tends to select a replacement from the same regional confederation. Iran qualified through the Asian Football Confederation, meaning another Asian team would likely be considered.
Two potential candidates frequently mentioned are:
Iraq
Iraq national football team could still qualify through an inter-confederation play-off. If Iraq win their play-off match, they would qualify regardless of Iran’s status. But if they lose and Iran withdraws later, FIFA could still consider them as a replacement due to their competitive performance in qualification.
United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates national football team narrowly missed qualification after finishing third in their group and losing in a play-off. They are also the highest-ranked Asian team that failed to qualify outright, which could strengthen their case if FIFA looks for the next strongest side.
However, selection would not be automatic.
FIFA has no automatic replacement rule
Unlike some competitions, the World Cup rulebook does not require FIFA to pick the next best team in qualification. Instead, the organization can choose any appropriate replacement team if one is needed.
That decision could be based on:
- Qualification results
- FIFA rankings
- Regional balance
- Logistical considerations
In extreme cases, FIFA could even allow the tournament to proceed with fewer teams, though that would be unlikely in the new 48-team format.
What happens if a team withdraws after the tournament starts?
If a team withdraws once the competition has begun, the rules change.
In that case:
- No new team is inserted
- Matches could be awarded as 3-0 forfeits
- Results might be annulled if the withdrawal occurs early in the group stage
The tournament would continue with adjusted standings.
Has a World Cup team withdrawn before?
Yes. Withdrawals have happened multiple times in World Cup history. At the 1950 FIFA World Cup, several teams withdrew before the competition began, including:
- Turkey national football team
- Scotland national football team
- India national football team
FIFA attempted to invite replacements but some declined due to travel costs, leaving the tournament with 13 teams instead of 16. Another famous case occurred before the 1938 FIFA World Cup, when Austria national football team withdrew following the country's annexation by Nazi Germany.
The Situation for 2026
For now, Iran remain officially qualified for the tournament. FIFA has indicated that its priority is ensuring a safe and fully contested World Cup, while continuing discussions with the three host nations.
Until any formal withdrawal or suspension occurs, the Iranian national team remains scheduled to compete.
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Tinu Brown