Who makes it out of Group C? The 2026 World Cup Qualification battle explained

South Africa, Benin, and Nigeria are locked in a tight race for World Cup qualification from Group C. Here’s how each team stands, their upcoming fixtures, and who’s most likely to book a ticket to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Group C: Down to the wire

The race for World Cup qualification in Group C is heating up with just two rounds of matches remaining. A three-point deduction for South Africa following the Teboho Mokoena incident dealt them a blow, but Bafana Bafana are still very much in the mix.

Related: 2026 WCQ: Bafana Bafana docked three points for fielding suspended player

They currently sit second on goal difference behind Benin, both tied on 14 points, while Nigeria and Rwanda remain within striking distance on 11 points. Lesotho (9 points) and Zimbabwe (4 points) are effectively out of the running, though they could still influence the final standings.

Current Standings:

Benin – 14 pts (+4)

South Africa – 14 pts (+3)

Nigeria – 11 pts (+2)

Rwanda – 11 pts (0)

Lesotho – 9 pts (-3)

Zimbabwe – 4 pts (-6)

With five nations still mathematically alive, the next two matchdays promise drama, tension, and possibly a few surprises.

Benin: Leaders under pressure

Upcoming Matches: Rwanda (A) – Oct 10 | Nigeria (A) – Oct 14

Benin top the table but face a daunting task with two consecutive away matches. Their record on the road offers little confidence — no wins in their last 17 away fixtures across all competitions.

They were awarded a 3-0 victory against Rwanda in 2023 due to a suspension issue, but the actual match ended 1-1. Historically, Benin have struggled against Nigeria, losing 16 of their 19 encounters and never winning away to the Super Eagles. With their current form, securing even three points from these two fixtures would be a success. Anything more would be a remarkable achievement.

South Africa: Advantage on Home Soil

Upcoming Matches: Zimbabwe (A) – Oct 10 | Rwanda (H) – Oct 14

South Africa’s “away” clash with Zimbabwe will actually be played in Durban, giving them a familiar setting to bounce back. The Warriors are out of the running and may use this fixture to experiment ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations later this year.

Bafana should fancy their chances, having beaten Zimbabwe 3-1 in Bloemfontein last year. The bigger test comes against Rwanda in Nelspruit, a side that already defeated them 2-0 earlier in the campaign on artificial turf. Rwanda’s recent away wins in Nigeria and Zimbabwe prove they’re no pushovers.

A win over Zimbabwe and a draw against Rwanda could be enough for South Africa — but goal difference may still decide their fate.

Nigeria: Late Surge or Too Little, Too Late?

Upcoming Matches: Lesotho (A) – Oct 10 | Benin (H) – Oct 14

Despite boasting a squad full of elite players, Nigeria have underperformed for most of this campaign. Still, the Super Eagles remain in contention.

A comfortable win over Lesotho in Polokwane is expected, which could also help boost their goal difference. If they follow that up with a victory over Benin at home, they’ll put real pressure on both Bafana Bafana and the Squirrels.

However, Nigeria’s earlier dropped points — including a home draw to Rwanda and defeat to South Africa — might come back to haunt them.

Related News: Nigeria’s World Cup hopes fade after 1-1 draw with South Africa

Rwanda: The Wild Card

Upcoming Matches: Benin (H) – Oct 10 | South Africa (A) – Oct 14

Rwanda’s campaign has been unpredictable. They stunned Nigeria and Zimbabwe with away wins but have struggled for consistency. Their only home victory in their last seven qualifiers came against South Africa.

Still, they remain in the mix. A draw against Benin and another strong showing against Bafana Bafana could see them finish in the top two, depending on other results.

Lesotho: Respectable but out of the race

Upcoming Matches: Nigeria (H) – Oct 10 | Zimbabwe (H) – Oct 13

Lesotho have been one of the pleasant surprises of this group. They’ve managed draws against Nigeria, Rwanda, and Benin, showing solid defensive structure.

However, recent heavy defeats to South Africa (3-0) and Benin (4-0) exposed their limits. With two home games left — both to be played in South Africa — they’ll look to finish on a positive note.

Zimbabwe: Building for the Future

Upcoming Matches: South Africa (H) – Oct 10 | Lesotho (A) – Oct 13

With elimination confirmed, Zimbabwe’s focus is shifting toward AFCON preparation. Coach Michael Nees may use the remaining games to test younger players. A defeat to South Africa in Durban seems likely, but they’ll fancy their chances against Lesotho to end their campaign on a high.

Predicted Finish:

South Africa – 18 points

Nigeria – 17 points

Benin – 15 points

Rwanda – 13 points

Lesotho – 10 points

Zimbabwe – 7 points

Verdict

Group C remains one of the most competitive pools in the African qualifiers. South Africa’s home advantage and consistent performances could prove decisive, while Nigeria’s late surge might not be enough. With everything still to play for, these final matches will test each team’s resilience, discipline, and hunger for a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup